Final Four Formulas, My Picks, and The Boombox Boss
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Birthday Vibes
Spent some time offline to celebrate my birthday! I had some of my best friends come to visit, played golf at Bear Mountain and hosted a party for 35 on Saturday night. It was so much fun, shout out to Hayley cause she did most of the work. Then on Monday, St Patty’s Day, my actual bday, my dad, grandma and uncle showed up at my door to surprise me and we went for lunch with Hayley’s family out here. Feeling loved and appreciated. Always grateful to see another year. Love my people.
Truly my favourite month of the year, obviously it’s fun to celebrate a birthday. It’s also Spring, because it signifies a time of growth, light and renewal, marked by warmer temperatures, blooming flowers and longer days.. Let’s go!
It also is March Madness, the greatest tournament on earth.
KenPom Data
Today, we’re diving into the tournament, and we’re leaning on a tool that’s become a game-changer for fans and analysts alike: KenPom data. So, what is it? KenPom data is an advanced analytics system that ranks every Division I college basketball team based on their efficiency—think points scored and allowed per possession, adjusted for the strength of opponents. It’s not about wins or losses; it’s about how well a team plays on both ends of the court, night in and night out.
Why’s it called KenPom? Simple—it’s named after its creator, Ken Pomeroy, a former meteorologist turned hoops nerd who launched the system back in 2002. His background in crunching numbers for weather forecasts translated perfectly into breaking down basketball stats, and now his site, kenpom.com, is a go-to for anyone serious about the game.
How’s it calculated? At its core, KenPom uses something called Adjusted Efficiency Margin—basically, a team’s offensive efficiency minus their defensive efficiency, tweaked to account for who they’re playing. A team that scores 110 points per 100 possessions against a top defense gets more credit than one dropping 120 on a cupcake. It’s all about predictive power—showing us how strong a team would be if they stepped on the court tonight. No fluff, just data.
Alright, that’s the rundown—now let’s get into the fun stuff. We’re using KenPom to make some picks for this week’s NCAA action. Let’s see where the numbers take us!
March Madness Picks
I’ll start with my final four picks and why I believe each of these teams will get to the Alamodome in San Antonio.
First final four matchup I have, Creighton vs St John’s:
St. John’s is led by one of the best coaches of all time, Rick Pitino. They’re sitting at No. 7 in KenPom’s overall rankings right now, with a ridiculous Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 91.2—tops in the nation. Rick Pitino’s got this team locking down opponents, holding them to under 43% on two-point shots. They’re battle-tested in the Big East, and their tempo lets them dictate pace.
Creighton, at No. 11 overall, counters with an elite offense—the #4 overall Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They shoot 38% from three and a top-20 defense. This matchup’s a clash of St. John’s grit versus Creighton’s precision, and KenPom loves their efficiency profiles—both top-12 in Adjusted Efficiency Margin. I see St. John’s stifling just enough while Creighton’s firepower keeps it close, but I’m giving the Red Storm the edge to advance.
The other final four matchup:
Duke’s No. 1 in KenPom, and it’s not hard to see why as it starts with Cooper Flagg, who enters the tournament after a sensational freshman season. Oh yeah, and they’re pretty deep with 3 projected top 10 picks in next year’s draft. Top 3 in both adjusted offensive AND defensive efficiency. They’re No. 1 in effective field goal percentage at 57.2%, per KenPom, and they don’t turn it over much.
Illinois, at No. 15 overall, brings a different flavor. Their offense is No. 9 at 119.6, fueled by deadly three point shooting, and a top 20 defense. The Illini thrive in transition and can chase teams off the court. KenPom’s historical trends back this too: since 2002, all but two champs were top-20 on both offense and defense, and both these teams fit the bill. Duke’s big guns and consistency gets them here and I’ve got them moving on.
Reps Remove Doubt’s Final Call
We got the favourites Duke beating St. John’s in the 2025 title game.
Cooper Flagg is the X-factor—a 6’9" nightmare averaging a double-double, shutting down stars, and playing with a fire that screams title game MVP. The starpower depth and supporting cast will wear teams out and that’s what will carry them through this tournament.
St. John’s, Pitino’s scrappers, have gritty guards and a turnover-forcing D. There is just no answer for Flagg, their weapons overwhelm, and former NCAA Champion playing under Coach K, Coach Scheyer gets his first. 78-72 Blue Devils. Reps remove doubt is calling his favourites, Duke as the 2025 tournament champs.
My main dogs know, it’s been the Dallas Cowboys and Duke since day one. It’s a rough time to be a Cowboys fan, so gimme this one sport gods!
You gotta love March, it’s where so many legends are made but today it wasn’t a player, it was a manager.
The first upset of the tourney was #12 McNeese State over #5 Clemson. Even bigger news is their manager, Amir “Aura” Khan. Amir simply joined Mcneese as a manager because he wanted to be part of a team. Next thing you know he went viral for rocking the tunnel with his boombox Then his manager profile on the McNeese website blew up because of this legendary quote: "If they kept manager stats for rebounding and wiping up wet spots on the court, I'd put up Wilt Chamberlain numbers."
After that he became the first ever NCAA manager to sign an NIL deal, inking three with buffalo wild wings, tickpicks and insomnia cookies. Which turned out to be a great investment by all three, because the McNeese cheerleaders were rocking socks with Amir’s face on them! He had lineups of fans waiting to take pictures and even post game interviews. McNeese won their first ever NCAA tournament game and are now one game away from dancing to the sweet 16.
Only in March, baby!
Which four do you got heading to San Antonio? Who will be cutting down the nets?
